Monthly Review- December 2011

As 2011 comes to a close, its time for all investors to take a slight breather from the underperforming market this year. For the entire year, news of the European debt crisis and the poor US economic conditions took turns to depress the stock markets, causing most markets to slump compared to the end of 2010.
Although the problems mostly came from the west, it is the stock markets of the East that took the hardest hit. The Nikkei, Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng Index all fell by around 20%, and within the South East Asia region, Singapore STI was the worst performer, with a 17% decline compared to the start of the year.
In line with the macroeconomic conditions, my portfolio has also been hit and resulted in net losses for the year. On a total weighted average, my portfolio was down approximately 15% for the whole year. The main draggers are Rotary, First Ship Lease Trust and Wingtai, which are largely affected by cyclical downs in oil and gas industry, shipping industry and the cooling measures in the Singapore property market respectively. Top performers in the portfolio are largely the same as last year's, namely Mapletree Logistics Trust, Parkwaylife Reit, Soup Restaurant and UOB Kayhian.
This month, I have added Singpost in my portfolio. Having seen the counter drop from a 52-week high of $1.21 to S0.96 which reflects an attractive dividend yield of 6.5%, I snapped up this counter to boost my portfolio's annual divident payout. For year 2011, the annual dividend returns is 4.1%, which is much higher than any bank's interest rate. Although this percentage is still below the high inflation experienced this year, I believe this sustainable and consistent dividend payout is still attractive.
2011 has ended on a rather bad note. Fears of Eurozone crisis still lingers into 2012. No one knows how the financial condition of 2012 will turn out to be, as of now, I can only learn to be more prudent and nimble with my investment.

My Current Portfolio:

Performance for the Year 2011:

Lessons learnt: Investing strategy may have to be changed, as the market conditions now are deviating from the fundamentals of the individual counters. It seems like investing from a technical perspective will be a better approach for the year ahead.

Monthly Review- November 2011

The downtrend continues this month after the brief relief last month, with more issues in the Eurozone brewing. While many members of the Eurozone had their sovereign credit downgrades this month, what worries investors most is that the powerhouses of Eurozone have become the ones facing difficulties now. France is having a pending downgrade in the outlook of its sovereign debt by Standard and Poor's rating agency, while Germany's sale of its sovereign bond is facing lacklustre results.
All these events caused the STI to sink back to levels below 2700 before hovering around the range. The jitters in the market caused many investors to remain at the sidelines, and it also caused my portfolio's unrealised profits to slide back into the red. However, I decided to take the contrarian view to try to average down my holdings. From a technical perspective, both ST Engineering and FJ Benjamin seems to be ready for a technical rebound as the RSI and MACD are in the oversold region. I placed a buy bid for both, and in the end I got ST Engineering but not FJ Benjamin. I did not increase my bid price for FJ Benjamin in order to get my lots successfully, because I have learnt not to chase after the share price and I need to be discipline in investment.
The purchase of ST Engineering is the only change I made for my portfolio this month. As the end of the year approaches, it can almost be certain that this year has been a bad year for my portfolio. Due to the many 'wait and see' approaches and 'not willing to sell at a small loss' attitudes, it caused me to accumulate a rather massive loss for my portfolio for the year. However, as I am not in need of the cash, I can hold on to my investments till the tide turn. It may take a couple of years, but I believe what goes down will eventually come up some day, as long as the fundamentals remain intact. The bright spot for me, I believe, is that the bulk of my portfolio generates a good and consistent dividend yield of approximately 6% for the year, which helped me counter inflation reasonably well.
As the year draws to a close, I can only hope that the final month of the year will have some pleasing news that can ease the tension in the markets to minimize my losses in my portfolio.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: The "buy-and-hold" strategy seems less effective nowadays compared to before, as markets become very volatile. Investors and traders are more aggressive and nimble with their trades now to ensure profitability or keeping losses in check. Seems like I need to learn both techniques to improve myself in such volatile conditions.

Monthly Review- October 2011

This month is the month of great reversal. Within a month, the STI was pushed up from a low of 2500 to above 2900 levels. This is mainly attributed to the good news coming from Europe, as they have agreed on plans that would help to bailout troubled Greece. However, amidst the exuberance, risks still linger. Italy is the next big nation in the spotlight, and looming crisis seems to be lurking especially when its sovereign bond yields rose to above 6.0%.
Although volatility is here to stay, and the economic conditions don't seem too good for the next 12 months, the earnings report for the third quarter still boosted market confidence to a certain extend. CapitaMall Trust has announced a dividend of $0.02420 per share. This is a slight increase quarter-on-quarter, proving that the retail sector in Singapore still has a positive outlook amidst the gloom. I believe with the opening of JCube in the near future and with the transformation of Jurong East, their retail malls will continue to enjoy good occupancy rates, further boosting its dividend yield.
In addition, Mapletree Logistic Trust has also announced a dividend of $0.01690 per share. Mapletree Logistic Trust has always been my profitable holding. With a good management team, the trust has been actively boosting their yield. All these quarters that I am holding on to this counter, it has been generating great returns with improving dividends. However, the share price seemed to be pushed down recently and fluctuating around the $0.83 to $0.85 boundary. Hopefully the breakthrough will come soon to stabilise above $0.90 to reflect its true potential.
Furthermore, First Ship Lease Trust has also announced its dividend payout of USD 0.0095 per share. With the proposed exchange rate of US $1: $1.3003, it equates to $0.01235 per share. This is its first full quarter payout since the private placement. The management has maintained the dividend payout, which boosted the confidence of investor to push the share price back to above $0.30 levels as there were no dilutive effects. I will continue to hold on to this counter for its dividend payment as a form of passive income.
Overall for this month, my portfolio has returned to profitability with the consideration of dividend payout. Excluding total dividends, my portfolio is still in the red. The remaining months do not seem very positive. I can only continue to hold on and wait for better investing opportunities.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Counters with good dividend returns will proof their worth during times of volatility like these. The consistent dividend payouts continue to provide a continual stream of passive income for me even in times of tumbling share prices.

Monthly Review- September 2011

This month is still a month of volatility. The problem in Greece seems too huge to contain, as it spreads to Italy and Spain. The default seems eminent, and the concern now is whether the default will be done in an orderly manner, or will it cause a stir up in the financial system of Eurozone.
My accumulated profits all these while has been totally wiped out this month. Recession seems inevitable now, and a rough ride ahead is bound to occur. Selling off anything now due to panic selling seems to be a bad move. The only consolation now is that most of my counters have decent dividend yield. Hence even in times like this, I should still have a stream of consistent dividend income when the share price plunges.
This month, I decided to further average down my buying price for Wingtai, as its share price continue to be depressed even though it reported spectacular results for the previous quarter. As such, I decided to take the opportunity to average down my buying price and earn the spectacular dividends that they are going to payout to shareholders.
Other than that, there are no further changes to my portfolio this month. Currently I am just waiting for the tide to turn, and getting ready for the upcoming earnings reporting season. Hopefully all the earning reports for the quarter can gradually rebuilt the confidence of investors to pump their money back into the stock market. However, I believe the instability in Europe will continue to keep investors at the sidelines. Hope that the economic picture can be clearer soon, and may the last quarter of 2011 be the best quarter for this year.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Panic buying is as dreadful as panic selling. However, no one knows when the tide will turn. Thus never try to time the market, just do the homework and let the market do its job. As long as the money is not urgently needed, investment with a longer term horizon should prove profitable.

Monthly Review- August 2011

This month has been the worst month of my investing horizon. At the beginning of the month, S&P ratings agency downgraded US long term debt ratings by one notch from AAA. As this is the first time in history that the biggest economic power in the world lost its triple A sovereign credit rating, it brought about a large scale panic in the markets. Global stock markets faced a plunge last seen in the economic crisis in 2008, which reminded many investors of the panicky market conditions at that time.
Sell down was fast and furious, and by mid August, all my unrealized profits for accumulated for the past 2 years were wiped out, and even registering losses in my portfolio. The damage has been huge, but thankfully nearing the end of the month, the market sentiment turned slightly positive as IMF announced that they will do their part to boost the jobs market when needed. This confidence booster helped the market claw back some of its losses at the end of the month. My portfolio also recovered from the loss to register a small unrealized profit. Nonetheless, for the month of August, my unrealized profits has decreased by a massive 70%!
There are no changes to my portfolio this month. Amidst the gloom and doom, the only positive news were the earnings report released by the companies and their declared dividends. Parkwaylife Reit has declared a quarterly dividend of $0.0237 per share. Parkwaylife Reit has been generating consistent returns, especially in times of uncertainties, it has proved to be a gem. In addition, in current times of high inflation, Parkwaylife Reit will be a great hedge as its rental income is pegged to the CPI. The quality of this counter can be observed in the great support in its share price. It is definitely the best performer in my portfolio for the month.
FJ Benjamin has also announced spectacular results, with soaring profits and higher revenue. With that, they had announced a final dividend of $0.0200 per share. This is in line with last financial year's distribution, indicating its sustainability. In addition, ST Engineering, Rotary and UOB Kayhian has also announced their respective interim dividend of $0.0300 per share, $0.0100 per share and $0.0050 per share. ST Engineering had a good quarter, but both Rotary and UOB Kayhian were not in a good shape. Profits declined quarter-on-quarter, and there were even downgrades on Rotary by some analysts. However, at this point of time, as I am not in need of money, I will just keep my shares for future dividends while awaiting for the tide to turn.
Last but not least, Wingtai has also reported a fantastic set of results. With a huge amount of cash at hand, Wingtai has declared a total dividend of $0.0700 per share. This announcement attracted a huge buy up by investors and traders, causing the share price to jump by 8.3% one day after the announcement. The huge jump has also caused me to missed the buying opportunity to average down the price of Wingtai that I am holding on to, as I have learnt not to chase after share prices. However, I will keep a lookout for any possible dips in the near future to average down as well as tap on the bountiful dividends.
In conclusion, volatility is hear to stay at least for the next couple of months, as the markets are jittery of the prospects of US and Europe. I will still hold on to my counters, and keep a lookout for the opportunity to average down or realize my gains/ losses.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: In current times, buy and hold seems to be a waning strategy. Quick profits and strict loss cutting strategies seemed to be better options in these times of volatility.

Mapletree Industrial Trust (18th Oct 10 to 4th Aug 11)

Mapletree Industrial Trust has been a promising counter since the start. With its strong sponsor, Mapletree Investments, and the excellent performance its sister share Mapletree Logistic Trust has shown all these while when I was holding on to it, I believe that this will also be an outstanding counter to have.

I was lucky to be one out of the many who managed to get 1 lot of Mapletree Industrial Trust during IPO at the price of $0.93. During that period, there were many IPO listings in SGX, however, most seemed to underperform because soon after the hype, many of such new IPOs have their share price sinking to levels below their initial pricing.
Mapletree Industrial Trust on the contrary, stood out from the rest. Although after the initial hype in the first couple of days to hit a high of $1.19, the counter retreated to levels between $1.02 and $1.10 for a few months, it still remained above the IPO levels. This shows the confidence and the support investors have for Mapletree Industrial Trust.
Throughout the period that I was holding on to it, Mapletree Industrial Trust has been generating great returns for its investors. The dividends paid quarterly to investors rose from $0.0152 per share in 4th quarter 2010 to $0.0193 per share in 1st quarter 2011. This huge increase in payout further substantiates the capability of its management to generate great returns for its investors.
In July 2011, the share price of Mapletree Industrial Trust rose to $1.225, a new high since IPO. However, I was rather hesitant to sell at that point of time due to the news that there was a preferential offering of 2 shares for every existing 25 shares for all its current shareholders at a price of $1.06. In addition, the management has announced an estimated cumulative dividend payout of between $0.0309 to $0.0312 for 2nd quarter of 2011. As this has been a great counter, I was tempted to increase my holding and wait for the dividend payout. Therefore I decided to set a sell price target, if the target was hit before the XA period, I will sell it, if not I will just keep it and apply for the preferential offering as I believe after XA the share price will drop to below $1.20 due to dilutive effects.
However, patience paid off. After the XA period, the share price of Mapletree Industrial Trust dropped for a couple of days, and rose back to levels above $1.20 shortly. This gave me the opportunity to get the cumulative dividend payout, as well as profit from the capital appreciation. Thus, I made the decision to sell my single lot at $1.215.
My thoughts at that time: I was rather hesitant in selling this counter, due to its profitability all these while. However, I also have to factor in the risk-reward ratio. The counter has hit its recent high, and the possibility of a downtrend seems higher than a continual uptrend. Therefore I decided to act on it and sold it with a total gain of 34% from both capital appreciation and dividend payout.
Lessons learnt: Many times, the share price of a counter is not reflective of its fundamentals, especially in times of global economic uncertainty. I am glad I sold it and realized my gains, as the global market went into a selling frenzy almost immediately after. Do not let greed blind you. Once the target is reached, sell it, because if the global economic conditions turn, no matter how strong the fundamentals of the counter is, it will not be spared.

Monthly Review- July 2011

Since March 2011, the markets had been looming with bad news. From the Japan earthquake, tsunami and the nuclear crisis, to the European debt crisis, to the possible hard landing in China's economy, to now, the US debt ceiling crisis, the markets had been beaten down rather badly. However as many market watchers believe that the US politicians will make the "right" decision so as to avoid any default by the world's largest economy, thus the STI managed to stay in the green for the month.
For the month, my total unrealized profits rose by approximately 20%. No new additions were made, instead, I have liquidated part of my holdings in FJ Benjamin during a short lived rally to $0.405. I believe that in the longer term, FJ Benjamin will still do well, but due to my over-leveraged in it, selling part of it now for extra cash for possible averaging down in the near term seems to be the best option now to limit any downside risk.
This month is also the start of the earnings reporting season. So far, 4 companies in my portfolio as announced their earnings for the quarter. FSL Trust has announced a total dividend of USD 0.0095 per share. USD 0.0087 per share has been distributed prior the private placement with the proposed exchange rate of US $1: $1.2245, which equates to $0.01065 per share. The remaining USD 0.0008 per share has been announced and it will be paid at a later date with the proposed exchange rate of US $1: $1.2040, which equates to $0.00096 per share. Even with the private placement, the total dividents to be paid for the quarter remains at USD 0.0095 per share. This shows the higher total DPU that the management has been able to pay from the purchase of the two new product tankers. I believe this is positive news and hopefully the share price can gradually start to rise again.
In addition, CapitaMall Trust has announced a dividend of $0.0236 per share and Mapletree Logistic Trust has also announced a dividend of $0.0160 per share. Both counters have been providing me with a steady growing stream of dividend income as their apt management has generated consistent returns for all investors. I will continue to hold on to these counters for long periods, until fundamentals changed.
The biggest news this month should be the private placement and preferential placement of shares by Mapletree Industrial Trust. This is an accredative move by Mapletree Industrial Trust, as the placement is to fund the purchase of two divesment by JTC which will improve their yield in the long term. However, I am still deciding what to do. Hence I placed a target sell price for my single lot obtained from IPO. If my target price is not reached, I will subscribe to my units during preferential placement.
Next month, Parkwaylife Reit and other companies in my portfolio will be announcing their results for the quarter. I believe there will be good news from them. Currently the issue of US debt ceiling still weighs on the market. Hopefully the US politicians can quickly come to an agreement before the deadline is reached, else the market will definitely plunge into freefall.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Diversification is an important investment strategy. It is crucial not to put all the eggs in one basket so that any possible losses can be minimized.

Monthly Review- June 2011

This month, we saw a huge correction happening when worries of the Greek debt, slowdown in China's growth and the weak recovery of the US economic recovery hit the market all at the same time. This caused a sell down in the month, which caused STI to temporarily dip below the key 3,000 point support. However, thanks to bargain hunting and the latest positive news that Greece will get the package helped to stabilise the market and brought STI back to above waters in the final week of the month.
The rally in the final week minimize my losses for the month. Overall my unrealized profits dropped by approximately 27% compared to the previous month. There are no changes in my portfolio. However, some news were released this week concerning my counters.
FSL Trust has announced a private placement to finance its purchase of two long range product tankers. This news has caused some weakening of both the share price as well as the immediate dividend payment due to the dilution. However in the longer term, this move may be viewed upon as a positive move by the management as it improves the yield in the long run. But how long will it take for the positive effect to be felt awaits to be seen.
For the month, it has been a quiet trading month with generally low trading volumes and many investors are holding on to their cash and staying at the sidelines at the moment. The end of this month also marks the end of the first half of the year and also the end of Quantitative Easing 2. What will happen in the second half of the year awaits to be seen as uncertainty still weighs on the economy. For now, I will just take a wait and see approach to see how events will unfold. Hopefully things will improve in the second half and the rally continues.

My Current Portfolio :

Lessons learnt: I missed out the opportunity to average down ST Engineering this month due to fear. Once again I allowed emotions to set in to interfer with my logical analysis. I need to put aside emotions - fear and exuberance, during investing.

Monthly Review- May 2011

As per last year, the effect of "sell in May and go away" once again come into play this month. The troubles in Europe were rekindled as Greece's ability to make its austerity measures a success were highly doubted and the nuclear issues in Japan still lingers. In addition, the economic recovery in US was also slowing down, and the problem of hitting the national debt ceiling just made things worse.
This month, my portfolio has fallen by approximately 21%. One of the worst performers is ST Engineering. Since its XD, it has plunged to below $3.00 per share, approximately 9% from the recent high. However, I believe that this is just a pull back period and since its fundamentals are all intact, in the mid to long term, all should be fine. Hence I will continue to hold on to this counter for the mid to long term until i reach my target price or its fundamentals have changed.
On the other hand, the best performer this month is CapitaMall Trust. For the past few months, it has tested the $1.99 mark a couple of times and has failed to make any new breakthrough. However, it has succeeded on the last day of May to close firmly at $2.00 on high volume. This may be a signal that it is going to hit new highs in coming weeks. No matter what, CapitaMall Trust has been a great counter to hold all these while, and I will liquidate it once it hits my target price, else I will continue to hold on to it.
For the month, there were some small changes in my portfolio. First, I have reduced my holdings in UOB Kayhian after it went XD. This is because from past experiences, the share price of UOB Kayhian usually tumbles down soon after XD to a new low. That is why immediately after XD, I tried to sell off at the best pricing I can get. However apparently this has been a mistake as the share price has been stabilizing around $1.70 all these while and the fluctuations has been minimal. However, I have sold my share and all I can do now is just to look forward to see if the future trend of UOB Kayhian will move towards the trend predicted. If it does, I will buy back more at a lower price, else I will just hold on to my remaining shares to collect rich dividends.
Furthermore, I have added my holdings in Rotary to average down my purchase price. All these while, it seems like Rotary is going through cyclical trends as the share price fluctuates within a price range. Now that it is hitting a low, I decided to purchase more shares to average down the purchase price in hope to ride on the upwards trend to finally profit from this counter. But I believe all this will take some time and I have the holding power to wait it out.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Long term investing versus short term trading. In this period of high volatility, it seems like short term trading is more profitable than long term investing. A couple of my counters has hit their recent highs. However due to my intentions to hold for longer term, the share price of these counters has since plunged into the negative region resulting in an overall loss. I believe in the long term, the trend is still positive, but taking note of all the opportunity costs involved, one has to ponder, is it worth it to hold long term?

Monthly Review- April 2011

This month has been a volatile month for the STI as the earnings reporting season for the first quarter of 2011 begins. For the month, my portfolio grew by 17%. The growth in unrealised profits were below my expectations, mainly because of the large drop in share price of several counters after they went XD at the end of the month.
For this quarter, the reported performance of a few counters that I'm holding were satisfactory. My main powerhouse, Mapletree Logistic Trust reported a rise in the distribution per unit to $0.0155 per share. This increase is brought about by the accredative acquisition of new properties in Japan, Korea and Singapore. This also proved that the damage brought about by the 9.0 magnitude earthquake and tsunami disaster that hit Japan last month was minimal to the properties and operations of Mapletree Logistic Trust. I strongly believe that the management is doing a great job in generating yield and profit for the shareholders and I have strong faith that the consecutive dividend payouts will continue to improve backed by further potential upside in the appreciation of share price.
First Ship Lease Trust has also announced a dividend of USD 0.0095. With the proposed exchange rate of US $1: $1.2353, that equates to $0.01174 per share. This further strengthened the sustainability of the dividend payout. However the prospects of this counter looks gloomy ahead, as the news of the previous lawsuit against the defaulter has made no progress, and no announcement was made to shareholders. I will continue to hold this counter for a while more, till when cash is needed, I will liquidate my holdings in this counter first.
In addition, Mapletree Industrial Trust has also announced a much better than expected distribution of $0.0193 per share. However, as I am only holding on to 1 lot of the counter, thus I am contented to place it aside for the quarterly dividend payout.
My new counter, CapitaMall Trust, has also announced an increase in the distribution per unit year-on-year. For the quarter, CapitaMall Trust has announced a dividend of $0.0229 per share. This payout, although lower compared to that of Suntec Reit, but I can see the sustainability and the improvement over the quarters in the payout. On the other hand, Suntec Reit's distribution per unit has been declining every quarters. I believe a smaller absolute amount that improves every quarter is muc better than a higher absolute amount that declines quarter on quarter in the long run. Hence I believe my divestment of Suntec Reit into CapitaMall Trust is a right investment choice.
Next month is the highly feared May. In anticipation of the "Sell in May and Go Away" syndrome, I have reduced my holdings in Wingtai after the price appreciated by approximately 10%. This enables me to take some profit off the table and liquidate some of my cash locked up in my investments. Hope that this year's May won't be as bad as last year's.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: If a better opportunity arises, divesting an average performing counter or an underperforming counter will be a better option.