Monthly Review- August 2010

This month marks the end of the earnings reporting season for the 1st half of 2010. From now on, the attention of investors will be back on the big picture, that is, the health of the economy.

Indeed, the second half of the month saw the Dow Jones Industial Average dip below the psychological 10,000 mark a couple of times! However, STI proved to be much more resilient as it held above the 2,900 mark throughout the month.

After adding positions in UOB Kayhian last month, I continue to add positions in Noble when the opportunity presents itself at $1.55. I believe that the aggressive mode of acquisitions and expansions by Noble during this period of uncertainty will be beneficial to its future profits and revenues when the potential is full-fledged.

In addition to the $550 of dividends declared last month, a few more counters declared their dividends for the quarter. Parkwaylife Reit announced a dividend of $0.0209 per share, which is a slight increase compared to the previous quarter. Rotary and UOB Kayhian have also announced an interim dividend of $0.01 per share and $0.005 per share respectively. This brings my total dividend for the quarter to approximately $700. This is above my expected dividend payout, and I hope my total dividends collection can reach $2,400/ year or even higher.

On the flipside, due to the volatility of the market, some of my counters' share price dropped to even lower levels as compared to last month's closing. This caused my portfolio's losses to increase by more than 3.5 times. However, I will continue to hold on to them as their fundamentals have not changed, and they had also reported decent profits and revenues for the quarter.

Consequently, some analysts state that Mapletree Logistic Trust may have a rights issue soon to raise funds from shareholders for more acquisitions to add on to the portfolio. In the event that a rights issue is declared, I will definitely add on my positions in the strong counter. Furthermore, Parkwaylife Reit is showing an unusual bull rally for this usually stable counter recently. This also sparked a debate on whether Parkwaylife Reit is planning any rights issue as well. I suppose until any concrete announcement is made, I can only guess. But if it is true, I will also add my positions in this defensive counter. For now, I will need to save more money to ensure adequate funds for possible rights purchase.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: It is better to manage a few strong counters in a well balanced portfolio than having a diversified portfolio with far too many counters, more than I can handle effectively.

Monthly Review- July 2010

This month is a month of recovery as expectations of good earning results for the quarter push the STI towards the 3,000 mark. This boost benefited some of my counters that are reporting good results. However, as share price rose back to their year highs, or even above their 52-week highs, I will need to do some serious evaluations on whether to continue to hold or sell.

As in previous post, FJ Benjamin has rose back near to its year high, and I realized my profits for the counter as my target price has been reached. This has increased my total realized profits by approximately 74%.

Furthermore, I have added my positions for UOB Kayhian to average down my buying price when the share price dip to $1.46. I believe UOB Kayhian is a strong counter and with its history in dividend payments, there are more pros than cons for me to add on my exposure for this counter.

In addition, the bidding war for Parkway has also benefited the share price of Parkwaylife Reit as the winning bid by Khazanah paved more opportunities for future acquisitions of properties in Malaysia which will boost Parkwaylife Reit's portfolio. This resulted in a rise of approximately 9% in the share price of Parkwaylife Reit for the month.

Consequently, Soup Restaurant also posted relatively good earnings for the quarter and declared an interim dividend of $0.0035 per share and a special dividend of $0.0065 per share. Suntec Reit has also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.02528 per share, which is a slight increase quarter-on-quarter, while Mapletree Logistic Trust declared a quarterly dividend of $0.015 per share, which is the same as the previous quarter. First Ship Lease Trust has also announced a dividend of US $0.0095 per share. With the proposed exchage rate of US $1: $1.3533, that equates to $0.01286 per share. This is above my expected payout and it boosted my confidence for the counter.

Other than Parkwaylife Reit, which will be announcing its earnings next month, my current counters have declared a total amount of approximately $550 worth of dividends for the quarter. This is a very encouraging amount as my goal of at least $1,200/ year of dividends has been attained.

However, not all is smooth sailing. Noble group announced that it will issue bonds to raise funds for general use. This caused its share price to plunge by 4% in one day as investors interpret this move with pessimism. I believe more information is required on this matter, but in the event it drop further to my target buy price, I will add positions to average down my buy price for this strong commodity counter. With my time horizon, I believe Noble is still a worthwhile investment and this dip pose a good buying opportunity.

Till now, two thirds of my counters are still in the red, but losses has minimized by approximately 95% compared to the previous month. I hope things will continue to improve with time and I believe my counters will prove their worth in time to come. As for now, my stand still remains and if my buy price is reached, I will add on more positions for Noble and Suntec Reit.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: For my growth counters, I will stick to my plan to sell once the target price is reached or when the share price suddenly spike up in a short period of time, making valuations unattractive. For my dividend counters, I will continue to hold on to them till fundamentals changed.

FJ Benjamin (3rd Feb 10 to 15th Jul 10)

FJ Benjamin was bought based on the analysis that 2010 is going to be a year of economic recovery and the retail sector will benefit from this recovery story. Before the purchase, the earnings reports of FJ Benjamin showed lacklustre results and they were still posting losses. However, the extent of losses was narrowing and this is an encouraging sign that the recovery should be on track.

The stock was bought in Feb 2010 with the belief that its quarterly results will show their first profitable earnings report after the financial crisis. As reported previously, due to my limited funds at that point of time, I could only invested in limited number of FJ Benjamin shares. Nevertheless, with my faith in this counter, I added more positions soon after. I strongly believe that the first quarter results of 2010 will be excellent compared to the slumps during the first quarter result of 2009. Indeed, the earnings report was encouraging and profits were announced.
Soon share price rose and shot up to a high of $0.38 with the additional news that renowned investor Peter Lim is accumulating shares of FJ Benjamin. However due to a lack of knowledge on the signs to sell, I held on to this counter, believing that FJ Benjamin can be a long term play as recovery of the retail sector continues.

True enough, patience paid off and another wave of rise began for FJ Benjamin with the good expected quarterly earnings report just around the corner. This time round, I decided to grasp the opportunity to realize my gains. I fix my target price at $0.355 with a profit of 26%. From the charts, it can be seen that the technicals show limited upside as both RSI and stochastics are reaching the overbought region. However, the strong increase in share price accompanied with a strong volume indicates that further upside is possible and MACD also reflects no sign of weakness as yet.

I decided not to be greedy this time and firmly stick to my plan. A 26% profit is a great record for me and being able to stick to the plan is of even utmost importance as lessons learnt has keep emphasizing the significance of discipline. In addition, nothing beats having realized profits cashed in.

My thoughts at that time: I must start to be discipline and stick to my target. Cashing out gains at the 20% mark is a successful trade, let alone 26%. Hence, I made no hesitation and realized my profits before any unforeseeable circumstances strike out from nowhere again and wipe off my gains.

Lessons learnt: Discipline pays and it is always best to realize gains based on the planned target. In the event that any share experience a sudden spike in share price within a short period of time, a sell signal is triggered. Sell first, cash in gains, and the counter can always be bought back during corrections, which almost always occur.

Monthly Review- June 2010

Most parts of June was much better than that in May, as stock markets gradually recover from the slumps in May. However, trade volume was thin and that is not exactly an encouraging sign even as markets rose. All was well amidst the volatility, till the economic data were released in the last few days of June.

In the last week of June, economic data from US, namely the home sales, employment rate, jobless claims, comsumer confidence etc were mostly below expectations. To make matters worse, economic data from China were also disappointing. All these created fear amongst investors and traders, who became weary of the slowing recovery.

This month I have sold off Healthway at my predetermined target price, making a realized profit of about 7%. In addition, I added more positions in First Ship Lease Trust. In the current situation, my evaluation for the trust is as long as dividends were given out, I am not too worried about the price fluctuations with the share price staying above $0.30. Since I have an investment horizon of about 5 years, I believe there is more upside potential for this counter.

I believe 10 counters will be the maximum number of counters I will hold at any one time. Thus, with the remaining funds I hold, I will treat it as opportunity fund and use it to average down the average buying price of a few strong counters. Stocks targeted for this averaging are UOB Kayhian, Noble and Suntec Reit.

This month, my total unrealized losses have increased compared to that in May. The bulk of the losses is still contributed by First Ship Lease Trust. The half year earnings reporting season should be around the corner now and hopefully good results can boost the share prices of my counters and possibly increase the total amount of dividends to be collected for the quarter.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: It is really hard to be a savvy investor by buying when there is fear and stocks plunge because fear sets in and I don't know how far the drop will be. What I learn is to analyse and set a target buying price. If the trade goes through, hold on to it, but if the trade is not executed, never chase. It is proven that opportunities will always present themselves.

Healthway (16th Apr 10 to 16th Jun 10)

Initially my aim of buying this counter was hoping for a quick gain based on the technical analysis that I did. I first bought this counter at $0.165, since it has been stabilizing at this price for quite some time. However, it seems like things did not go the way I intended. Soon after, under the selling pressure from the pessimistic market sentiments due to the problems from the Eurozone, the share price of Healthway just dropped uncontrollably.

Things worsen with the release of the first quarter earnings report by Healthway. Their revenue and profit took a dip and that worries me a great deal. Emotions came into play and discipline ceased. When the share price dropped to $0.15 on 17th May, I sold part of my holdings to reduce my exposure of this counter, but at the same time, not erasing the entire opportunity to stay vested in this growing healthcare service provider.

Soon, things took a turn for the better. Eurozone concerns eased and news that big buyers are snapping up shares of Healthway boosted and share price and within a month's time, the share price has shot up from a low of $0.14 to $0.21.

As $0.20 was my initial target price of this counter, and from the technical analysis which all pointed to a sell cue, I decided to stick to my initial plan and sell Healthway at $0.205. Due to fear, I sold part of my holdings previously and this decreased my supposed profit from 20% to a mere 7%. This is a lesson learnt for me and made me believe even more that discipline pays. Profit taking at my target price is better than any unforeseeable drop in share price resulting in possible paper loss.

My thoughts at that time: I was filled with greed when the share price shot up to $0.21, thinking that the price may even rise further to boost my profits, but I decided to be firm and discipline and stick to my selling price.

Lessons learnt: Emotions really confuse me. Fear and greed are no doubt an investor's greatest enemy. Stick to the target and be contented.

Monthly Review- May 2010

"Sell in May and go away!" This is the first May in my investment horizon and I got to have a taste of the true meaning of this phrase fast and hard. Eurozone crisis has hit the stock market real hard this month and the negative effects of China tightening measures just worsen the situation.
In no time, STI got beaten down from 3,000 level to 2,700. Of course my counters were not spared in any way. The counter that got the worse hit is FSL Trust. Soon after the purchase at 61 cents per share, counter-party risk came to light and 2 vessels were defaulted. This caused the price to plunge due to worries on its future earnings and distribution per unit. Soon the share price dropped to 51 cents, where I added the my holdings to average down as I believe its management's capability to ride through this problem and continue its shipping sector recovery story. However, due to the persisting eurozone fears, share price continue to tumble. This time, I stopped myself from further averaging down due to the increased holding in this counter, but I will hold on to this for dividend play.
Another badly beaten counter is Rotary. Due to the pessimistic market sentiment, despite posting good profits for the quarter, its share price still plunged from the panic selling. I will continue to hold on to this counter as fundamentals of the company have not changed, and will possibly average down if I have excess funds. As of now will take a wait-and-see approach.
All other counters were also not spared, as seen from the table below. Overall profits have plunged into the unforeseen territory. Although fear filled the air, I took the opportunity to increase my portfolio to diversify into other sectors.
This month I bought a few lots of Noble and UOB Kayhian to diversify into the commodity and finance sector. Noble is a giant in the commodity sector and its past earnings have been positively encouraging. Being a great blue chip and upon reaching a more affordable price level after share issue and dividend payments, this dilution effect post a great opportunity to enter this blue chip. In addition, similarly after dividend payment, the share price of UOB Kayhian also plunged by almost 10%. This allowed me to buy into this counter to diversify into the finance sector. UOB Kayhian has a strong balance sheet, and after the release of its most recent earning report, my confidence in this counter remains strong. It seems like I have bought them slightly too early, as soon after the purchase, share prices plunged another 10% or so. Nevertheless, its quite impossible for me to time the market, so I will just hold on to these counters and ride out this volatile period staying vested.
Consequently, due to the worries of the market, as well as the lacklustre 1st quarter earnings report, I have reduced my holdings in Healthway. This will help to free up some cash for me to ride through this volatile period, and at the same time, not erasing the entire opportunity to stay vested in this growing healthcare company.
All in all, I will hold on to all my current holdings and ride out this volatile and uncertain period, and if opportunity arise, add on and average down the buying price of some strong counters. At the mean time, staying vested and looking forward to dividend payments by my dividend counters proved to be an encouragement despite the red.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Do not time the markets, buy into strong counters with a plan at hand, and stick to the plan at all times. Buying is easy but selling is often hindered by emotions both fear and greed. Stick to the plan and sell when target prices are reached or when fundamentals of the company changed. Discipline pays.

Monthly Review- April 2010

April was another month of roller coaster ride after February this year. Trade volume and momentum were gradually picking up from where we left off in March and things were looking positive due to all the mostly positive earning reports of this quarter's earnings season.
However, things took a turn in the last week of the month when Greece's rating was lowered to "junk" grade, Portugal's rating was down two notches and Spain's rating was down by one notch. These events cause STI to drop by almost 60 points in one day.
At this point of time, outlook for the economy still seems unclear, but I believe the long term positive upward trend is still intact. Hence in this month, I have added another 2 holdings.
From the technical point of view, Healthway seems to be heading to a breakout in the upside as its bollinger bands are getting narrower and both relative strength index and stochastic are pointing to the oversold conditions. Therefore I took the plunge and bought it. However, till now, it seems like the situation is not in my favour and the price continues to decline but I will hold on to it as I suppose the good upcoming earnings result will provide a boost for this counter.
In addition, I have added First Ship Lease Trust to my holdings for long term dividend play. As the shipping and offshore industry is on the recovery mode now, I believe it has potential for capital appreciation. Even if the upside is limited, I will stick to this purchase for long term dividends so as to achieve my goal stated in March to collect a total of $1,200 for the year.
Overall for this month, total unrealized profits has increased by about 68% as compared to previous month. This increase is contributed by the recovery in the retail sector which boosted FJ Benjamin to a new high. I believe the earning report for FJ Benjamin will provide further upside for it. I will continue to hold on to all my counters till their respective target prices are reached.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Patience is a virtue. As long as the fundamentals of the company are good and still intact, it is worth to hold on to the counters. Their true value will be discovered and reflected in their share price in time to come.

Monthly Review- March 2010

For the whole of this month, the trading volume has been low and volatility is high. There are 2 major incidents this month that result in a rough ride. Firstly, India surprisingly rose its rates, and secondly, the resurface of Greece's debts problems. Although these events result in certain dips, overall outlook is still positive.
For my counters, I'm still holding on to Mapletree Logistic Trust, Suntec Reits, Parkwaylife Reits, Soup Restaurant, Rotary, Yongnam and FJ Benjamin. In fact, this month I added my positions in FJ Benjamin by 4 lots, increasing my total holdings to 10 lots.
As seen from my portfolio for the month, profits has improved from February by almost 6 times. Mapletree Logistic Trust and Parkwaylife Reit continue their uptrend momentum to reach new highs. Suntec Reits is currently hovering around my buying price. Hopefully more breakthrough will occur soon. I will continue to hold on to these three Reits for continual dividends collection.
For other counters, Rotary is showing positive results for me has it trend up to $1.06 now. However I think Rotary will experience some correction recently due to closing of the gap up and the dilution effects from dividend payments in May. Hopefully the price can be sustained above $1.05. Yongnam experienced a couple of buy ups by the big boys this month. However as I bought at a rather high price, more uptrend is required before I can see any sustainable profits. Currently waiting for bidding results from Yongnam. I believe positive results will boost its share price to possible new highs. FJ Benjamin is also experiencing a stagnant period. I hope its 1st quarter results for 2010 will give an extra boost to the share price. Soup Restaurant has been very stagnant. I entered at the wrong price, hence I am contemplating whether to sell now or hold on. Perhaps I will make the decision after it pays its dividends.
Overall, I believe uptrend is still intact for the long term. I will continue to hold on to my current counters. Currently I am looking out for another dividend counter to add on to my dividend collections for the year. Hopefully I will be able to achieve a total dividend collection of at least $1,200/ year. At the moment, I am looking at CapitaComm Trust, K-Reits and First Shipping Lease Trust. Prices tend to be a bit high for the moment. Without any major correction, I will wait till its dividend payments in April/ May before loading it after dilution effect.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Dollar cost averaging should be done at a lower price than the previous buying prices. For FJ Benjamin, my second purchase was done at too high a price, resulting in a slight loss now compared to a supposed slight profit. Be discipline in buying and selling. Set targets and stick to them.

Monthly Review- February 2010

This month has been a very volatile month. At first I thought that Chinese New Year would provide an upbeat sentiment for the market, but the weak job market in US and the debt problems in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain are upsetting any possible rally.
However, in my view, I see opportunity with FJ Benjamin at this point of time. In the big picture, economy is improving, though weak, but overall trend is still upwards. From the fundamentals, I believe that the earnings in 4Q09 will be better than 4Q08 with the improvement in economy. In addition, 4th Quarter is the festive seasons, I believe consumer spending will increase. From technical viewpoint, FJ Benjamin is oversold. Prices have been on the downtrend and it presents a good buying opportunity. Hence, I bought 6000 shares of it due to limited funds (though I hope to buy more).
Other stocks in my portfolio still experience volatility, especially Yongnam and Rotary which are experiencing downward selling pressure. It is only till the release of earning reports and profits did the share prices see some upbeat buying.
Rotary has announced dividends of 3.8 cents for FY09. It is payable in May. Soup Restaurant has also announced dividends of 0.35 cents for FY09. The payable day will be announced at a later date. Yongnam will be releasing its earning reports in March. Hopefully Yongnam will announce dividends, and I hope the uptrend will still continue and boost my portfolio to higher profits in March!

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: I still need to be more disciplined with my portfolio. Once I have set my targeted buying and selling price, I have to stick to it.

Monthly Review- January 2010

This month has been a rollercoaster ride. At the beginning of the month, we saw the capricon effect taking place. My portfolio grew and it was exhilarating. However, this also brought out the greed in me. As described in my previous posts, prices of Golden Agri and PEC have both rose above my target price, but due to the boom and my greediness, I held on in hope to reap more profits.

Little did I know, things took an unexpected turn and due to issues from US and China, stocks plunge and a major correction occurred. Although I was late in realizing profits, nevertheless I did, and hence managed to pocket some profits before a more damaging dive occurred.

However, another mistake was committed. Amidst the volatility and uncertainty, I plunge back into the stock market and again committing the same mistake of chasing stock prices instead of sticking to my determined buy price. True enough, it is going to be another lesson to learn for myself. Prices continue to drop way below my buying price and I ran out of extra cash to purchase the stocks at really good prices, resulting in my newly bought stocks to be in the red. All I can do now is wait, wait for the uncertainty in the air to clear, and hope that the Chinese New Year around the corner will bring about a new year rally to boost the market and bring my current portfolio into the green again!

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: In times of correction, wait for at least 6 days before plunging back into the stock market to buy. Always stay disciplined and stick to the determined buy price. Check all indices and technical indicators to confirm its trend as much as possible before buying. Whenever in doubt, skip the purchase. It is always better to miss the chance of profiting rather than rush into it and get stuck in a loss.