Tuesday, May 31, 2011

Monthly Review- May 2011

As per last year, the effect of "sell in May and go away" once again come into play this month. The troubles in Europe were rekindled as Greece's ability to make its austerity measures a success were highly doubted and the nuclear issues in Japan still lingers. In addition, the economic recovery in US was also slowing down, and the problem of hitting the national debt ceiling just made things worse.
This month, my portfolio has fallen by approximately 21%. One of the worst performers is ST Engineering. Since its XD, it has plunged to below $3.00 per share, approximately 9% from the recent high. However, I believe that this is just a pull back period and since its fundamentals are all intact, in the mid to long term, all should be fine. Hence I will continue to hold on to this counter for the mid to long term until i reach my target price or its fundamentals have changed.
On the other hand, the best performer this month is CapitaMall Trust. For the past few months, it has tested the $1.99 mark a couple of times and has failed to make any new breakthrough. However, it has succeeded on the last day of May to close firmly at $2.00 on high volume. This may be a signal that it is going to hit new highs in coming weeks. No matter what, CapitaMall Trust has been a great counter to hold all these while, and I will liquidate it once it hits my target price, else I will continue to hold on to it.
For the month, there were some small changes in my portfolio. First, I have reduced my holdings in UOB Kayhian after it went XD. This is because from past experiences, the share price of UOB Kayhian usually tumbles down soon after XD to a new low. That is why immediately after XD, I tried to sell off at the best pricing I can get. However apparently this has been a mistake as the share price has been stabilizing around $1.70 all these while and the fluctuations has been minimal. However, I have sold my share and all I can do now is just to look forward to see if the future trend of UOB Kayhian will move towards the trend predicted. If it does, I will buy back more at a lower price, else I will just hold on to my remaining shares to collect rich dividends.
Furthermore, I have added my holdings in Rotary to average down my purchase price. All these while, it seems like Rotary is going through cyclical trends as the share price fluctuates within a price range. Now that it is hitting a low, I decided to purchase more shares to average down the purchase price in hope to ride on the upwards trend to finally profit from this counter. But I believe all this will take some time and I have the holding power to wait it out.

My Current Portfolio:


Lessons learnt: Long term investing versus short term trading. In this period of high volatility, it seems like short term trading is more profitable than long term investing. A couple of my counters has hit their recent highs. However due to my intentions to hold for longer term, the share price of these counters has since plunged into the negative region resulting in an overall loss. I believe in the long term, the trend is still positive, but taking note of all the opportunity costs involved, one has to ponder, is it worth it to hold long term?