Monthly Review- December 2010

It is the final month for 2010 and the dip in November seemed to be the correction and consolidation period for STI prior the final leg rally before the year ends. Despite further news from China on monetary tightening or the news of lowest jobless claims in 2 years from US, markets have been rangebound and rather unresponsive to the macroeconomic news due to the thin trading volume and the fact that many traders have settled their positions for the year.
The rally for the last month of the year boosted my portfolio to a new high as my unrealised paper profits increased by approximately 90.5% compared to the previous month. FJ Benjamin proved its worth with its 10% run up from its recent low. This boosted my confidence in this counter, especially with the Year-End sales and Christmas sales, I am sure the performance by FJ Benjamin for the quarter will be spectacular. Hopefully the great performance can be reflected in the share price soon.

In addition, with the rise in price of crude oil due to the extreme cold winters experienced in Europe and US, the share price of counters in the oil and gas sector were boosted as well. Rotary has once again returned to levels above $1.00. I hope in the new year the prospect for the oil and gas sector will be more bullish and Rotary can regain its long lost shine.

Mapletree Logistic Trust has also reached a new high for the year. The prospects for this counter is great with possible increase in rentals of industrial and commercial properties in the new year. The funds raised in the previous placement has been used in the acquisitions of all the four proposed warehouses and properties. With all the great prospects for this counter, I will definitely hold on to it for its growing dividends and further possible capital appreciation.

Overall, this year has been a great run for the stock markets flushed with liquidity and that has a positive effect on my portfolio. Based on the total accumulated capital used in investments for the year, the total average weighted return for the year (including dividends) is 13.1%. I am pleased and contented with the returns from my portfolio for the year. 2010 has come to an end and I hope 2011 will be a better year.

My Current Portfolio:

Performance for the Year 2010:

Lessons learnt: Homework is absolutely necessary to find value buys, and the best time to purchase such counters is when fear is all around. Although doubt and uncertainty sets in, be confident with the homework of analysis and study that has been done, just buy, hold and wait for the returns to be reaped.

Monthly Review- November 2010

Things were not smooth sailing this month at all. After the continuous bull run for 2 consecutive months, the time for a breather sets in. The correction and consolidation period was much expected. However, what was unexpected was the gloom and doom that arose in the month. First was the reignition of the Eurozone crisis. This time, it is Ireland that requires a bailout. The IMF and Eurozone immediately approved a bailout loan package for Ireland, but worries still linger as many feared that Spain and Portugal will be the next.

Before the fears from the Eurozone crisis could settle, next came the news of shelling of South Korea by North Korea. The tensions in the Korean Peninsula sparked fears around the globe and stocks around the region slumped. The STI was not spared and selling pressure sets in.

The only change in my portfolio this month is the addition of FJ Benjamin back into my portfolio. Due to the selling pressure, the share price of FJ Benjamin has since corrected by approximately 15%. I believe that this should be a good opportunity for me to snap up some shares of this counter now, as retail play is still profitable in Singapore. Although I did not manage to buy the shares at the lowest price and in the immediate term I am suffering from some paper losses, but I know that it is impossible to time the market and I believe when the macro-environment turns more positive after the fears and worries died down, FJ Benjamin still has its market, especially with the festive seasons just around the corner.

Another issue for the month will be the private placement exercise by Suntec Reit to raise funds for its acquisition for the one-third stake in Marina Bay Financial Center. This exercise has some dilution effect in the near term, hence the share price of Suntec Reit dropped to a 3-month low. However, as the acquisition will boost the DPU by about 1%, hence in the long term, the deal is still beneficial to the shareholders. Hence I will continue to hold on to this counter despite the dilution and collect its dividends to fight inflation.

In conclusion, this month has not been rosy and selling pressures in the market still lingers. My total paper profits has already decreased by about 26% in a single month. As the volatility continues, I hope that with the festive seasons round the corner, the picture will improve and be more rosy next month.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Do not try to time the market. When you have done your homework and researched on a stock, and you think that it is at a reasonable value, just buy and hold on to it. Patience will pay. Do not panic in times of downturn, and stay away from the market if required. This will prevent the often made mistake of buy high and sell low.

Monthly Review- October 2010

This month's performance has been a continuation of the rally in September. STI rose to a new 2-year high, closing above 3,200 during mid-October, before losing its momentum to end at around 3,140 for the month. My portfolio also posted its largest total cummulative gain since January this year.
Major events for the month included the listing of the two Mega-IPOs in SGX, namely Global Logistic Properties, owned by Singapore GIC, and Mapletree Industrial Trust, owned by Temasek Holdings. These two listings were viewed as great investment opportunities by both institutional and retail investors, hence their listing resulted in an influx of liquidity into the market, creating a support which drove the markets to higher levels.
As one of the retail investors interested in the IPO of Mapletree Industrial Trust, I subscribed MIT shares via ATM. This is the first IPO that I had taken part in the subscription process. Thanks to lady luck, I was successfully allotted to 1 lot of MIT shares at the IPO price. The debut of MIT was exceptional, as its first day gain was 29% above its IPO price! However, as the exuberance died off and the rationality of investors returned, the share price of MIT retreated to a more sustainable level. In the event the price dipped to around $1.03 to $1.05, which gives an approximate dividend yield of 7.0%, I will add on my holdings for this counter. However if the opportunity did not come before the IPO of its sister share, Mapletree Commercial Trust, I will sell this counter to buy MCT.
Consequently, as posted previously, I have sold all my holdings in Noble. I realized my gains as I think that Noble has a good run up in a short period of time due to favourable acquisition news and a possible correction may be in sight. In the event the gap in share price is closed at $1.80, I will buy into Noble again, as it is still a strong commodity counter with growth potential.
In addition, Mapletree Logistic Trust has announced a dividend of $0.0154 per share for this quarter. This is a slight increase compared to the previous quarter and it reflected the good management behind this counter. The dividend for the period from 1st Oct to 15th Oct 2010 will be announced later and the cummulative dividend will be paid together next month. One great news was my application for the excess units during the rights issue was approved and I ended up with no odd lots. I will continue to keep this excellent counter for its excellent dividend play as well as possible capital appreciation.
Furthermore, Suntec Reit has also announced a dividend of $0.02502 per share for the quarter. This was lower than the distribution in the previous quarter and its overall performance for the quarter was not spectacular. However the announcement that Suntec Reit will invest in one-third stake in Marina Bay Financial Center halted my thoughts of divesting in the counter, as I believe MBFC will be the future gem for Grade A offices and it has the potential to push Suntec Reit's performance to higher levels.
First Ship Lease Trust has also announced a dividend of USD 0.0095 per share for the quarter. With the proposed exchange rate of US $1: $1.2962, that equates to $0.01231 per share. This shows that the dividend payout after all the defaulting issues is sustainable. However, being below the expectations of many investors, the share price of FSL Trust suffered a great dip. With my current holdings and average price, the performance of FSL Trust has already been above my expectations, and I believe its dividend payout will continue to be sustainable and improve in the near future.
In summary, this month has been a good month. However it also seems like the market needs to take a breather from the rally. Possible upcoming correction in sight, but hope the correction is a mild one.

My Current Portfolio:

Lesson learnt: When in doubt to sell or hold, stay away from the market. Impulse buying and selling is one of the worse thing to do. Stay calm and rational to evaluate the pros and cons of buying or selling. Itchy fingers will result in heart-breaking circumstances.

Noble (19th May 10 to 7th Oct 10)

Noble has always been a strong commodity counter, and it has been consistently expanding its business in the region. However, the share price of Noble was way above my financial ability to purchase any meaningful number of shares previously. It was until the announcement of both bonus share issue and dividend payment which brought my attention to this strong counter, as any possible dilutive effects in the share price may present an affordable buying opportunity for me.

Indeed, after the bonus issue and dividend payout, the share price dropped to about $1.80 per share. With this opportunity presenting itself, I immediately snapped up some of Noble's shares. However, things were not in my favour after the purchase. After the dilution effect sets in, the share price of Noble undergone a period of high volatility. The share price was in the positive territory for a short period, then it plunged to a low of $1.54.

This period of volatility was a cause of worry as my investment in this counter has been in the red all this while. However, with my belief in the management and the business of Noble, I took this opportunity to add on my positions in this counter. Indeed, my efforts paid off as the price bottomed out and reverse into the positive territory. From then on, the share price of Noble climbed up gradually and steadily. It was further boosted by the good news of acquisitions of profitable businesses in the commodities and energy sectors.
With the continuous run up in the share price, I decided to sell off part of my holdings in Noble to reduce my holdings in the counter and average down my buying price. Initially my plan was to hold on the remaining lots for the long term. However as time passes and STI reached the 2 year high of 3,190 in the overbought situation, the worry of a substantial correction sets in. This is aggravated by the presence of a price gap between $1.80 and $1.84. There may be a possibility that the magnitude of the correction may extend to close this price gap. With this in mind, I decided to realized my gains after comparing the risk-reward ratio and the factor of time in this run up.

My thoughts at that time: I was rather reluctant to sell as I believe Noble still has room for growth and its fundamentals have not changed. However after comparing the risk-reward ratio, I decided to cash in the profits and not let greed take charge. In the event that my analysis of the closure of the price gap during correction comes true, I will definitely buy back this strong commodity counter for investment and portfolio diversification.

Lessons learnt: The differentiation between discipline and emotions of fear and greed is fuzzy. Setting unrealistic price targets due to greed and sticking to that "plan" is not being disciplined. Being disciplined or not, depends on the how the analysis was done and what was the buy and sell strategy.

Monthly Review- September 2010

This month is a month of rally due to better than expected economic data from the US. STI broke through the previous high of 3,043 and reached a new 2-year high. This boosted the confidence of many investors previously staying at the sideline to participate in the rally. However, near the end of September, things looked a little subdued as markets were overbought and worries of the Eurozone returned to send jitters to the markets.
For my portfolio, the decision to add on my positions in Noble when the opportunity presented itself last month proved to be the right move. This month, Noble announced the acquisition of the retail commodity marketing operations of the joint venture between Sempra Energy and the Royal Bank of Scotland. This move will boost the portfolio of Noble and its earnings per share is projected to increase by approximately 10% with this acquisition. This boosted the share price of Noble to shoot up by 8% in a day and it prompted me to sell off part of my holdings in Noble to lower my average buying price to a safe $1.46. I will continue to hold on to this strong commodity counter until fundamentals change.
Another big event for me this month is the announcement of the placement of new shares by Mapletree Logistic Trust. The purpose of this placement is to raise funds for further acquisitions and pay down debts to strengthen its portfolio. Part of the new shares is for institutional investors and part is for existing shareholders, who will be eligible to purchase 2 shares for every existing 25 shares at $0.815. This is an expected move by Mapletree Logistic Trust, hence I will definitely add on my positions in this strong counter, and hopefully be able to apply for excess shares so that I won't end up with odd lots. With further acquisitions up and coming, I believe there is still upside for its yield. Hence when opportunity presents itself, I will definitely buy more shares for consistent dividend play.
In addition, Parkwaylife Reit had a spectacular performance in September until a private equity firm announced that it will sell off its 9.3% stake in Parkwaylife Reit at a price range of $1.56 to $1.62. This move caused Parkwaylife Reit's share price to drop by about 5.4% in a day and I made use of this opportunity to add on my positions in this counter. With this purchase, I also decided to sell off my positions in Yongnam at a slight loss due to commissions to free up some cash for better investing opportunities, as explained in the previous post.
Overall this month has been a good month and my portfolio's unrealized profits rose to the highest level for the year to date. I hope the macroeconomic conditions for the coming months will continue to be sustainable and the upcoming 3rd quarter results will continue to thrive with good dividend payments. It has been expected that growth in the 2nd half of this year will slow, hence the upcoming results will not be as spectacular as the 1st half of this year. Nonetheless, I believe my counters are still fundamentally strong, and as a long term investor, in the event of a dip, I will add on my positions.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: A reminder to myself that patience is a virtue. For fundamentally good stocks, continue to hold on to them until their fundamentals changed or their share price outran their fundamentals. Else a good amount of profits will be missed. In addition, remember to rebalance the portfolio by weeding out the losers and holding on to the winners. Selling away underperforming counters to minimize losses is an important skill to learn.

Yongnam (26th Jan 10 to 23rd Sep 10)

Yongnam is a company in the construction sector specialising in steel structures. It has a strong balance sheet and good fundamentals. Its order book is also healthy with many potential contracts to be clinched along the way. The above are some of the reasons why I invested in this counter in January.

Although Yongnam is a value stock in my opinion, it is not a "hot" stock. Through the 8 months that I held on to the stock, there were only 2 short profitable periods. Overall investing interest in this counter was low, and during the 2 profitable periods, interests in this counter was strong, but not sustainable. During the first rally, I was overcome by greed and thought that with patience, the rally would be sustainable and the price could go higher. However my expectation was not realized, and the share price came tumbling down soon after, leaving it in the red for a long time. It was till much later that I learnt that for penny stocks, the rally for them is a sharp spike, but only for a short period of time. Hence, for penny stocks I should just realize my profits when the tide turns.

I thought I have learnt my lessons after missing the first rally, but that was not the case. In the recent rally, instead of realizing my gains after the share price rose to the profitable region, I insisted on my target price of $0.30 and held on to it. In my disappointment, my target price was not reached, and the price retreated soon after.

Things took a turn when the share price of Parkwaylife Reit suddenly plunged by 5.4% in a day when a private equity firm sold their holdings in the counter. With this event, I decided to sell my holdings in Yongnam for the following reasons.

Firstly, Yongnam has been stagnant for a long time. This caused my money to be stuck in this counter for a long time with almost no returns, especially with my high initial buy price. The situation is aggravated by the low dividend yield of Yongnam, making this counter less and less attractive for me as this signifies a loss of opportunity cost.

Consequently, I came across the investing strategy share by an analyst recently: "Let the winners run, and weed out the losers". All this while, I do not have the courage to do so because I am very reluctant to realize any losses. It was till the counter returned to my buying price that I decided to sell off this counter with the losses stemming only from commissions, so I can finally free off this amount of strapped cash for more profitable investments.

Lastly I sold it off because a better investment opportunity has presented itself. Parkwaylife Reit has always been a stable counter generating good dividends every quarter. With the sudden plunge in the share price, I believe a good buying opportunity is presented amidst the panic selling. My belief is further strengthened by the outperformed call by an analyst.

With the above reasons, I believe there are more pros than cons for me to divest my money out of Yongnam and invest into Parkwaylife Reit. Even with the loss realized from the commissions, I believe that in the long run, the profits and dividends from Parkwaylife Reit will make this short term loss worthwhile.

My thoughts at that time: I was in a dilemma on whether to sell or to wait. I cannot foresee how the share price of Yongnam will turn out in the following weeks. If it rises, that will be great news, but if it continues to drop, that may mean I have to wait for another long cycle before any possible rally begins for this counter. With a better investment opportunity presenting itself before me, I decided to sell the counter despite the small losses from commissions.

Lessons learnt: Buy-and-hold strategy is not advisable for penny stocks with low dividend yields. Penny stocks usually have their long dormant periods and short spike rallies. If a rally is missed, a long time may be required for the next one to come, and this may mean the loss of opportunity cost when the money is stuck in a counter in the red, with little or none dividend payout during this period. Hence always be decisive when the rally for penny stocks seems to end and the tide has turned. It is always better to realize a smaller than expected profit than trapped in a losing stock.

Monthly Review- August 2010

This month marks the end of the earnings reporting season for the 1st half of 2010. From now on, the attention of investors will be back on the big picture, that is, the health of the economy.

Indeed, the second half of the month saw the Dow Jones Industial Average dip below the psychological 10,000 mark a couple of times! However, STI proved to be much more resilient as it held above the 2,900 mark throughout the month.

After adding positions in UOB Kayhian last month, I continue to add positions in Noble when the opportunity presents itself at $1.55. I believe that the aggressive mode of acquisitions and expansions by Noble during this period of uncertainty will be beneficial to its future profits and revenues when the potential is full-fledged.

In addition to the $550 of dividends declared last month, a few more counters declared their dividends for the quarter. Parkwaylife Reit announced a dividend of $0.0209 per share, which is a slight increase compared to the previous quarter. Rotary and UOB Kayhian have also announced an interim dividend of $0.01 per share and $0.005 per share respectively. This brings my total dividend for the quarter to approximately $700. This is above my expected dividend payout, and I hope my total dividends collection can reach $2,400/ year or even higher.

On the flipside, due to the volatility of the market, some of my counters' share price dropped to even lower levels as compared to last month's closing. This caused my portfolio's losses to increase by more than 3.5 times. However, I will continue to hold on to them as their fundamentals have not changed, and they had also reported decent profits and revenues for the quarter.

Consequently, some analysts state that Mapletree Logistic Trust may have a rights issue soon to raise funds from shareholders for more acquisitions to add on to the portfolio. In the event that a rights issue is declared, I will definitely add on my positions in the strong counter. Furthermore, Parkwaylife Reit is showing an unusual bull rally for this usually stable counter recently. This also sparked a debate on whether Parkwaylife Reit is planning any rights issue as well. I suppose until any concrete announcement is made, I can only guess. But if it is true, I will also add my positions in this defensive counter. For now, I will need to save more money to ensure adequate funds for possible rights purchase.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: It is better to manage a few strong counters in a well balanced portfolio than having a diversified portfolio with far too many counters, more than I can handle effectively.

Monthly Review- July 2010

This month is a month of recovery as expectations of good earning results for the quarter push the STI towards the 3,000 mark. This boost benefited some of my counters that are reporting good results. However, as share price rose back to their year highs, or even above their 52-week highs, I will need to do some serious evaluations on whether to continue to hold or sell.

As in previous post, FJ Benjamin has rose back near to its year high, and I realized my profits for the counter as my target price has been reached. This has increased my total realized profits by approximately 74%.

Furthermore, I have added my positions for UOB Kayhian to average down my buying price when the share price dip to $1.46. I believe UOB Kayhian is a strong counter and with its history in dividend payments, there are more pros than cons for me to add on my exposure for this counter.

In addition, the bidding war for Parkway has also benefited the share price of Parkwaylife Reit as the winning bid by Khazanah paved more opportunities for future acquisitions of properties in Malaysia which will boost Parkwaylife Reit's portfolio. This resulted in a rise of approximately 9% in the share price of Parkwaylife Reit for the month.

Consequently, Soup Restaurant also posted relatively good earnings for the quarter and declared an interim dividend of $0.0035 per share and a special dividend of $0.0065 per share. Suntec Reit has also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.02528 per share, which is a slight increase quarter-on-quarter, while Mapletree Logistic Trust declared a quarterly dividend of $0.015 per share, which is the same as the previous quarter. First Ship Lease Trust has also announced a dividend of US $0.0095 per share. With the proposed exchage rate of US $1: $1.3533, that equates to $0.01286 per share. This is above my expected payout and it boosted my confidence for the counter.

Other than Parkwaylife Reit, which will be announcing its earnings next month, my current counters have declared a total amount of approximately $550 worth of dividends for the quarter. This is a very encouraging amount as my goal of at least $1,200/ year of dividends has been attained.

However, not all is smooth sailing. Noble group announced that it will issue bonds to raise funds for general use. This caused its share price to plunge by 4% in one day as investors interpret this move with pessimism. I believe more information is required on this matter, but in the event it drop further to my target buy price, I will add positions to average down my buy price for this strong commodity counter. With my time horizon, I believe Noble is still a worthwhile investment and this dip pose a good buying opportunity.

Till now, two thirds of my counters are still in the red, but losses has minimized by approximately 95% compared to the previous month. I hope things will continue to improve with time and I believe my counters will prove their worth in time to come. As for now, my stand still remains and if my buy price is reached, I will add on more positions for Noble and Suntec Reit.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: For my growth counters, I will stick to my plan to sell once the target price is reached or when the share price suddenly spike up in a short period of time, making valuations unattractive. For my dividend counters, I will continue to hold on to them till fundamentals changed.

FJ Benjamin (3rd Feb 10 to 15th Jul 10)

FJ Benjamin was bought based on the analysis that 2010 is going to be a year of economic recovery and the retail sector will benefit from this recovery story. Before the purchase, the earnings reports of FJ Benjamin showed lacklustre results and they were still posting losses. However, the extent of losses was narrowing and this is an encouraging sign that the recovery should be on track.

The stock was bought in Feb 2010 with the belief that its quarterly results will show their first profitable earnings report after the financial crisis. As reported previously, due to my limited funds at that point of time, I could only invested in limited number of FJ Benjamin shares. Nevertheless, with my faith in this counter, I added more positions soon after. I strongly believe that the first quarter results of 2010 will be excellent compared to the slumps during the first quarter result of 2009. Indeed, the earnings report was encouraging and profits were announced.
Soon share price rose and shot up to a high of $0.38 with the additional news that renowned investor Peter Lim is accumulating shares of FJ Benjamin. However due to a lack of knowledge on the signs to sell, I held on to this counter, believing that FJ Benjamin can be a long term play as recovery of the retail sector continues.

True enough, patience paid off and another wave of rise began for FJ Benjamin with the good expected quarterly earnings report just around the corner. This time round, I decided to grasp the opportunity to realize my gains. I fix my target price at $0.355 with a profit of 26%. From the charts, it can be seen that the technicals show limited upside as both RSI and stochastics are reaching the overbought region. However, the strong increase in share price accompanied with a strong volume indicates that further upside is possible and MACD also reflects no sign of weakness as yet.

I decided not to be greedy this time and firmly stick to my plan. A 26% profit is a great record for me and being able to stick to the plan is of even utmost importance as lessons learnt has keep emphasizing the significance of discipline. In addition, nothing beats having realized profits cashed in.

My thoughts at that time: I must start to be discipline and stick to my target. Cashing out gains at the 20% mark is a successful trade, let alone 26%. Hence, I made no hesitation and realized my profits before any unforeseeable circumstances strike out from nowhere again and wipe off my gains.

Lessons learnt: Discipline pays and it is always best to realize gains based on the planned target. In the event that any share experience a sudden spike in share price within a short period of time, a sell signal is triggered. Sell first, cash in gains, and the counter can always be bought back during corrections, which almost always occur.

Monthly Review- June 2010

Most parts of June was much better than that in May, as stock markets gradually recover from the slumps in May. However, trade volume was thin and that is not exactly an encouraging sign even as markets rose. All was well amidst the volatility, till the economic data were released in the last few days of June.

In the last week of June, economic data from US, namely the home sales, employment rate, jobless claims, comsumer confidence etc were mostly below expectations. To make matters worse, economic data from China were also disappointing. All these created fear amongst investors and traders, who became weary of the slowing recovery.

This month I have sold off Healthway at my predetermined target price, making a realized profit of about 7%. In addition, I added more positions in First Ship Lease Trust. In the current situation, my evaluation for the trust is as long as dividends were given out, I am not too worried about the price fluctuations with the share price staying above $0.30. Since I have an investment horizon of about 5 years, I believe there is more upside potential for this counter.

I believe 10 counters will be the maximum number of counters I will hold at any one time. Thus, with the remaining funds I hold, I will treat it as opportunity fund and use it to average down the average buying price of a few strong counters. Stocks targeted for this averaging are UOB Kayhian, Noble and Suntec Reit.

This month, my total unrealized losses have increased compared to that in May. The bulk of the losses is still contributed by First Ship Lease Trust. The half year earnings reporting season should be around the corner now and hopefully good results can boost the share prices of my counters and possibly increase the total amount of dividends to be collected for the quarter.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: It is really hard to be a savvy investor by buying when there is fear and stocks plunge because fear sets in and I don't know how far the drop will be. What I learn is to analyse and set a target buying price. If the trade goes through, hold on to it, but if the trade is not executed, never chase. It is proven that opportunities will always present themselves.

Healthway (16th Apr 10 to 16th Jun 10)

Initially my aim of buying this counter was hoping for a quick gain based on the technical analysis that I did. I first bought this counter at $0.165, since it has been stabilizing at this price for quite some time. However, it seems like things did not go the way I intended. Soon after, under the selling pressure from the pessimistic market sentiments due to the problems from the Eurozone, the share price of Healthway just dropped uncontrollably.

Things worsen with the release of the first quarter earnings report by Healthway. Their revenue and profit took a dip and that worries me a great deal. Emotions came into play and discipline ceased. When the share price dropped to $0.15 on 17th May, I sold part of my holdings to reduce my exposure of this counter, but at the same time, not erasing the entire opportunity to stay vested in this growing healthcare service provider.

Soon, things took a turn for the better. Eurozone concerns eased and news that big buyers are snapping up shares of Healthway boosted and share price and within a month's time, the share price has shot up from a low of $0.14 to $0.21.

As $0.20 was my initial target price of this counter, and from the technical analysis which all pointed to a sell cue, I decided to stick to my initial plan and sell Healthway at $0.205. Due to fear, I sold part of my holdings previously and this decreased my supposed profit from 20% to a mere 7%. This is a lesson learnt for me and made me believe even more that discipline pays. Profit taking at my target price is better than any unforeseeable drop in share price resulting in possible paper loss.

My thoughts at that time: I was filled with greed when the share price shot up to $0.21, thinking that the price may even rise further to boost my profits, but I decided to be firm and discipline and stick to my selling price.

Lessons learnt: Emotions really confuse me. Fear and greed are no doubt an investor's greatest enemy. Stick to the target and be contented.

Monthly Review- May 2010

"Sell in May and go away!" This is the first May in my investment horizon and I got to have a taste of the true meaning of this phrase fast and hard. Eurozone crisis has hit the stock market real hard this month and the negative effects of China tightening measures just worsen the situation.
In no time, STI got beaten down from 3,000 level to 2,700. Of course my counters were not spared in any way. The counter that got the worse hit is FSL Trust. Soon after the purchase at 61 cents per share, counter-party risk came to light and 2 vessels were defaulted. This caused the price to plunge due to worries on its future earnings and distribution per unit. Soon the share price dropped to 51 cents, where I added the my holdings to average down as I believe its management's capability to ride through this problem and continue its shipping sector recovery story. However, due to the persisting eurozone fears, share price continue to tumble. This time, I stopped myself from further averaging down due to the increased holding in this counter, but I will hold on to this for dividend play.
Another badly beaten counter is Rotary. Due to the pessimistic market sentiment, despite posting good profits for the quarter, its share price still plunged from the panic selling. I will continue to hold on to this counter as fundamentals of the company have not changed, and will possibly average down if I have excess funds. As of now will take a wait-and-see approach.
All other counters were also not spared, as seen from the table below. Overall profits have plunged into the unforeseen territory. Although fear filled the air, I took the opportunity to increase my portfolio to diversify into other sectors.
This month I bought a few lots of Noble and UOB Kayhian to diversify into the commodity and finance sector. Noble is a giant in the commodity sector and its past earnings have been positively encouraging. Being a great blue chip and upon reaching a more affordable price level after share issue and dividend payments, this dilution effect post a great opportunity to enter this blue chip. In addition, similarly after dividend payment, the share price of UOB Kayhian also plunged by almost 10%. This allowed me to buy into this counter to diversify into the finance sector. UOB Kayhian has a strong balance sheet, and after the release of its most recent earning report, my confidence in this counter remains strong. It seems like I have bought them slightly too early, as soon after the purchase, share prices plunged another 10% or so. Nevertheless, its quite impossible for me to time the market, so I will just hold on to these counters and ride out this volatile period staying vested.
Consequently, due to the worries of the market, as well as the lacklustre 1st quarter earnings report, I have reduced my holdings in Healthway. This will help to free up some cash for me to ride through this volatile period, and at the same time, not erasing the entire opportunity to stay vested in this growing healthcare company.
All in all, I will hold on to all my current holdings and ride out this volatile and uncertain period, and if opportunity arise, add on and average down the buying price of some strong counters. At the mean time, staying vested and looking forward to dividend payments by my dividend counters proved to be an encouragement despite the red.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Do not time the markets, buy into strong counters with a plan at hand, and stick to the plan at all times. Buying is easy but selling is often hindered by emotions both fear and greed. Stick to the plan and sell when target prices are reached or when fundamentals of the company changed. Discipline pays.

Monthly Review- April 2010

April was another month of roller coaster ride after February this year. Trade volume and momentum were gradually picking up from where we left off in March and things were looking positive due to all the mostly positive earning reports of this quarter's earnings season.
However, things took a turn in the last week of the month when Greece's rating was lowered to "junk" grade, Portugal's rating was down two notches and Spain's rating was down by one notch. These events cause STI to drop by almost 60 points in one day.
At this point of time, outlook for the economy still seems unclear, but I believe the long term positive upward trend is still intact. Hence in this month, I have added another 2 holdings.
From the technical point of view, Healthway seems to be heading to a breakout in the upside as its bollinger bands are getting narrower and both relative strength index and stochastic are pointing to the oversold conditions. Therefore I took the plunge and bought it. However, till now, it seems like the situation is not in my favour and the price continues to decline but I will hold on to it as I suppose the good upcoming earnings result will provide a boost for this counter.
In addition, I have added First Ship Lease Trust to my holdings for long term dividend play. As the shipping and offshore industry is on the recovery mode now, I believe it has potential for capital appreciation. Even if the upside is limited, I will stick to this purchase for long term dividends so as to achieve my goal stated in March to collect a total of $1,200 for the year.
Overall for this month, total unrealized profits has increased by about 68% as compared to previous month. This increase is contributed by the recovery in the retail sector which boosted FJ Benjamin to a new high. I believe the earning report for FJ Benjamin will provide further upside for it. I will continue to hold on to all my counters till their respective target prices are reached.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Patience is a virtue. As long as the fundamentals of the company are good and still intact, it is worth to hold on to the counters. Their true value will be discovered and reflected in their share price in time to come.

Monthly Review- March 2010

For the whole of this month, the trading volume has been low and volatility is high. There are 2 major incidents this month that result in a rough ride. Firstly, India surprisingly rose its rates, and secondly, the resurface of Greece's debts problems. Although these events result in certain dips, overall outlook is still positive.
For my counters, I'm still holding on to Mapletree Logistic Trust, Suntec Reits, Parkwaylife Reits, Soup Restaurant, Rotary, Yongnam and FJ Benjamin. In fact, this month I added my positions in FJ Benjamin by 4 lots, increasing my total holdings to 10 lots.
As seen from my portfolio for the month, profits has improved from February by almost 6 times. Mapletree Logistic Trust and Parkwaylife Reit continue their uptrend momentum to reach new highs. Suntec Reits is currently hovering around my buying price. Hopefully more breakthrough will occur soon. I will continue to hold on to these three Reits for continual dividends collection.
For other counters, Rotary is showing positive results for me has it trend up to $1.06 now. However I think Rotary will experience some correction recently due to closing of the gap up and the dilution effects from dividend payments in May. Hopefully the price can be sustained above $1.05. Yongnam experienced a couple of buy ups by the big boys this month. However as I bought at a rather high price, more uptrend is required before I can see any sustainable profits. Currently waiting for bidding results from Yongnam. I believe positive results will boost its share price to possible new highs. FJ Benjamin is also experiencing a stagnant period. I hope its 1st quarter results for 2010 will give an extra boost to the share price. Soup Restaurant has been very stagnant. I entered at the wrong price, hence I am contemplating whether to sell now or hold on. Perhaps I will make the decision after it pays its dividends.
Overall, I believe uptrend is still intact for the long term. I will continue to hold on to my current counters. Currently I am looking out for another dividend counter to add on to my dividend collections for the year. Hopefully I will be able to achieve a total dividend collection of at least $1,200/ year. At the moment, I am looking at CapitaComm Trust, K-Reits and First Shipping Lease Trust. Prices tend to be a bit high for the moment. Without any major correction, I will wait till its dividend payments in April/ May before loading it after dilution effect.

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: Dollar cost averaging should be done at a lower price than the previous buying prices. For FJ Benjamin, my second purchase was done at too high a price, resulting in a slight loss now compared to a supposed slight profit. Be discipline in buying and selling. Set targets and stick to them.

Monthly Review- February 2010

This month has been a very volatile month. At first I thought that Chinese New Year would provide an upbeat sentiment for the market, but the weak job market in US and the debt problems in Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain are upsetting any possible rally.
However, in my view, I see opportunity with FJ Benjamin at this point of time. In the big picture, economy is improving, though weak, but overall trend is still upwards. From the fundamentals, I believe that the earnings in 4Q09 will be better than 4Q08 with the improvement in economy. In addition, 4th Quarter is the festive seasons, I believe consumer spending will increase. From technical viewpoint, FJ Benjamin is oversold. Prices have been on the downtrend and it presents a good buying opportunity. Hence, I bought 6000 shares of it due to limited funds (though I hope to buy more).
Other stocks in my portfolio still experience volatility, especially Yongnam and Rotary which are experiencing downward selling pressure. It is only till the release of earning reports and profits did the share prices see some upbeat buying.
Rotary has announced dividends of 3.8 cents for FY09. It is payable in May. Soup Restaurant has also announced dividends of 0.35 cents for FY09. The payable day will be announced at a later date. Yongnam will be releasing its earning reports in March. Hopefully Yongnam will announce dividends, and I hope the uptrend will still continue and boost my portfolio to higher profits in March!

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: I still need to be more disciplined with my portfolio. Once I have set my targeted buying and selling price, I have to stick to it.

Monthly Review- January 2010

This month has been a rollercoaster ride. At the beginning of the month, we saw the capricon effect taking place. My portfolio grew and it was exhilarating. However, this also brought out the greed in me. As described in my previous posts, prices of Golden Agri and PEC have both rose above my target price, but due to the boom and my greediness, I held on in hope to reap more profits.

Little did I know, things took an unexpected turn and due to issues from US and China, stocks plunge and a major correction occurred. Although I was late in realizing profits, nevertheless I did, and hence managed to pocket some profits before a more damaging dive occurred.

However, another mistake was committed. Amidst the volatility and uncertainty, I plunge back into the stock market and again committing the same mistake of chasing stock prices instead of sticking to my determined buy price. True enough, it is going to be another lesson to learn for myself. Prices continue to drop way below my buying price and I ran out of extra cash to purchase the stocks at really good prices, resulting in my newly bought stocks to be in the red. All I can do now is wait, wait for the uncertainty in the air to clear, and hope that the Chinese New Year around the corner will bring about a new year rally to boost the market and bring my current portfolio into the green again!

My Current Portfolio:

Lessons learnt: In times of correction, wait for at least 6 days before plunging back into the stock market to buy. Always stay disciplined and stick to the determined buy price. Check all indices and technical indicators to confirm its trend as much as possible before buying. Whenever in doubt, skip the purchase. It is always better to miss the chance of profiting rather than rush into it and get stuck in a loss.

PEC (23rd Dec 09 to 22nd Jan 10)

PEC was bought after sound fundamental and technical analysis. My efforts paid off as 2 days after I bought it at $0.655, the stock soared from a low of $0.64 to a high of $0.83. As I had confidence in its business (especially when PEC just announced that they had clinched a deal in Malaysia that is worth more than their market capitalization), I held on to the stock on faith that it can rise to a higher price.

However, the announcement by China on the reins in bank lendings caused all stocks to drop. PEC was rather resilient to the news and showed a strong support at about $0.78. However as time goes by, investors of PEC gave in and caused the stock to slide to $0.76 on 22nd Jan 2010.

From a technical point of view, stock price has fallen below the moving average of the bollinger band and STI dropped below the support of 2800 at the same time. Both indicators caused some panic in me. In fear that if I hold on longer, this might end up having the same fate as that of Golden Agri, that is to end up with lower profits, I decided to just realize my 15% profits now and then and just stay on the sidelines momentarily. A note to make is that after I sold it, prices rebounded back to $0.77 at the end of trading day.

My thoughts at that time: I am afraid that PEC may end up like Golden Agri, where I realized my profits only after much was "returned", hence I made the decision to end it there and then.

Lessons learnt: Make use of the principles of limit and stop losses to retain my profits. More importantly, always stick to the original plan!

Golden Agri (22nd Dec 09 to 22nd Jan 10)

This is my first realized trade after I broke even. I bought Golden Agri on 22nd Dec 2009 at $0.485. I bought it at this price because I believe that previously it has retracted many times from the resistance of $0.50, and with the bullish sentiment at this point of time it has a very high chance of pushing through the resistance and achieve higher highs. In addition to a weakening USD and hence rising commodity prices, I suppose that is highly likely. Indeed it has.

Golden Agri rose all the way to an all year high of $0.645. It has hit my target price by then, which was a 20% return (in actual fact, I am having a 30% return at this time) but due to greed, I held on to it, thinking that since it was advancing to newer highs everyday with such large transaction volume, a reverse in trend would be indicated with a dropping volume with further rise in price. In reality, there was already 2 other strong indicators to signal a sell, that is the RSI and Oscillator. Both signals a very overbought situation and a price reversal is on its way, but apparently I was very blinded by greed.
Prices dropped the next day after China announced plans to rein lendings by banks. Again, i did not realize my profits due to my belief that Golden Agri could advance further. However, things did not go the way I thought. Prices tumbled day after day, but I still held on because I thought I should just hold on to it and tide through the correction period.
My belief fell apart on 22nd Jan 2010 when prices dropped to $0.525 in the afternoon and STI fell below the strong support of 2800. This pressed the panic button in me as I fear that it will drop to my buying price. Hence I just sold it and realize my mere 6% profits instead of the supposed 30%. A note to make is that after I sold it, prices rebounded back to $0.545 at the end of the trading day.
My thoughts at that time: I do not know what is going to happen for the rest of the day and I feel very unsafe. Since I am still profiting, I shall just sell it to realize my profits, though I should give myself a tight slap for not realizing my supposed larger profits earlier.
Lessons learnt: A plan is very crucial before starting a trade, and sticking to the plan is of even utmost importance. Once target is reached, just sell and move on. At least by then, what was intended had been achieved.

My First Post - Introduction To A New Start After I Broke Even

I started my path of investing since July 2009. It started well (thinking back, I suppose I was just lucky), and I believe that made me over-confident. However, it did not take long for disaster to strike.
Soon enough, I bought a stock in August 2009 without doing any fundamental nor technical analysis. Without any stop-loss in place, having the "stocks will rebound and everything will be fine again" mentality and unwilling to admit that a failed trade was done, I held on to the stock as the price dropped daily, till everything was beyond repair. Finally, I sold the stock with a loss, a rather big loss in my opinion, as all my previous gains were wiped out, together with some of my savings.
Thereafter, I picked myself up, and told myself to learn the lesson, as it was really a memorable and painful one. From then, I invest again with more care, and soon broke even in November 2009.
A new start, a new beginning.
From now on, I will constantly tell myself to invest with care, always go through the fundamental and technical aspects before plunging any of my hard earn money into the stocks. This blog will be a place where I keep my trading diary, where all the precious lessons I learnt from my trades will be documentated. I believe these lessons will be beneficial to my investment portfolio and it will lead me to my eventual success to financial freedom!